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Noncyclical Rate of Unemployment (NROU)

Observations

Q4 2035: 4.10635
Updated: Mar 17, 2025 3:44 PM CDT
Q4 2035:  4.10635  
Q3 2035:  4.11051  
Q2 2035:  4.11468  
Q1 2035:  4.11888  
Q4 2034:  4.12315  

Units:

Percent,
Not Seasonally Adjusted

Frequency:

Quarterly

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Notes

Title Release Dates
Natural Rate of Unemployment 2011-02-02 2012-01-30
Natural Rate of Unemployment (Long-Term) 2012-01-31 2021-06-30
Noncyclical Rate of Unemployment 2021-07-01 2025-01-17
 
Source    
U.S. Congressional Budget Office 2011-02-02 2025-01-17
 
Release    
Budget and Economic Outlook 2011-02-02 2025-01-17
 
Units    
Percent 2011-02-02 2025-01-17
 
Frequency    
Quarterly 2011-02-02 2025-01-17
 
Seasonal Adjustment    
Not Seasonally Adjusted 2011-02-02 2025-01-17
 
Notes    
The natural rate of unemployment (NAIRU) is the rate of unemployment arising from all sources except fluctuations in aggregate demand. Estimates of potential GDP are based on the long-term natural rate. (CBO did not make explicit adjustments to the short-term natural rate for structural factors before the recent downturn.) The short-term natural rate incorporates structural factors that are temporarily boosting the natural rate beginning in 2008. The short-term natural rate is used to gauge the amount of current and projected slack in labor markets, which is a key input into CBO's projections of inflation.

2012-01-31 2021-06-30
Starting with the July, 2021 report: An Update to the Budget and Economic Outlook: 2021 to 2031 (https://www.cbo.gov/publication/57218), this series was renamed from "Natural Rate of Unemployment (Long-Term)" to "Noncyclical Rate of Unemployment".

The natural rate of unemployment (NAIRU) is the rate of unemployment arising from all sources except fluctuations in aggregate demand. Estimates of potential GDP are based on the long-term natural rate. (CBO did not make explicit adjustments to the short-term natural rate for structural factors before the recent downturn.) The short-term natural rate incorporates structural factors that are temporarily boosting the natural rate beginning in 2008. The short-term natural rate is used to gauge the amount of current and projected slack in labor markets, which is a key input into CBO's projections of inflation.

2021-07-01 2025-01-17

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Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment Congressional Budget Office Long-Term Projection Unemployment Rate Quarterly Nation Public Domain: Citation Requested Not Seasonally Adjusted United States of America